HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

In our continuing effort to keep you informed about the real estate market here on Maui, we've attached the Realtor's Association of Maui's newsletter and sales statistics (see links below). Like much of America, we're experiencing what economists are calling the worst economic slowdown since WWII, and Maui is now seeing the results of the short sales and REOs (bank owned/repossessed properties) that have plagued Mainland real estate markets. Generally our market peaked in '05 but remained stable until September '08 when the number of sales decreased significantly. Median sales prices were off by only around 5% up until January of this year, but since then, Maui has experienced a major downturn in tourism and a tenfold increase in short sales and REOs. Compared to last month (Oct. '09), the number of home sales is down slightly but condo and land sales are up; however, this month's residential sales was the second best month of the last 12 months, so things are definitely looking up with our peak season beginning right after Christmas. Our year to date statistics (Jan. '08 to November '08, compared to Jan. '09 to November '09) show that though the number of homes sold is off by 31%, median sale price is off by only 14% (average price, also off by 14%), and total dollar volume off by a whopping 41%. The number of condo sales is off by only 1%, but the median sale price is off by 23% (aveage price, off by 16%), and total dollar volume is off by 24%. The number of land sales is very limited and there were very few sales in '08, so the stats are not to be considered reliable indicators, but the number of land sales is up 3%, median sale price up by 20% (average price off by 2%), and total dollar volume up by 24%. In reviewing these figures keep in mind that the big decline in sales didn't start until September of '08. As I've stated in the past, these new stats are now reflecting the negative changes caused by the recession that began a year ago, so some month-on-month stats will actually show an increase in sales and volume, but continued lowering of average and median sale prices. Also as I mentioned a lot of that is due to REO and short sales, and last month's (October) MLS stats included the addition of the independent Na Hale o Maui's Distressed Property Report will give you a summary of the impact those sales are having on our market--you can click on "October 2009 Update" below to read the Na Hale o Maui report. For November's complete stats and Terry Tolman's narrative click below on "November 2009 Update".

As Terry mentions in his monthly overview, "Inventory continues to shrink since April '09 (good news). Similar to latest reports from many mainland markets, our market seems to be getting it's footing. The large inventory includes many short sales and REO (bank owned) which need to be absorbed as sales before we can move ahead to a more normal marketplace."

As real estate professionals with over 40 years of experience, we're committed to work passionately in assisting you during this challenging real estate market. While every property and escrow is unique, we've noted that in today's market, sellers who price their listings at 5% below the latest sale prices are successful in finding the currently price-oriented buyers. Most of those waiting for top dollar are doing just that, waiting, because there is still a huge listing inventory out there today. Ironically, many buyers are frustrated when their offers aren't accepted, but that's because they are often 10% (or more) below the latest sale prices. Truth is there are incredible opportunities out there for realistic buyers due to the wide variety and volume of listings, and the savvy seller who knows that it's a great time to move equity from one investment to a better one.

We hope you and yours have a Merry Chrismas and a Happy New Year (Mele Kalikimaka & Hau'oli Makahiki Hou)!. Feel free to email or call us anytime if we can help you in any way. We appreciate the privilege of serving you and look forward to hearing from you soon.

Sincerely,
Barry and Carol Brown, RE/MAX Maui
808-870-8888/toll free 888-565-1800/email barry@barrybrownmaui.com
Search the Maui MLS on www.barrybrownmaui.com

*NOW AVAILABLE--November 2009 UPDATE
November 2009 UPDATE
GREAT MSNBC AUGUST 21 REAL ESTATE REPORT


Current MLS Stats are available for:
October 2009
August 2009
July 2009
May 2009
April 2009
February 2009
June 2008
May 2008

"HI HO, HI HO, IT'S OFF TO WORK WE GO!" And even those who have been feeling grumpy about the weak labor market found something to smile about last Friday. The official Jobs Report for November was released - and the improving numbers were a big surprise to the markets.

According to the Labor Department, only 11,000 jobs were lost in November, despite expectations of 125,000 jobs lost. As you can see from the chart below, this marks the least number of jobs lost in nearly two years - since December 2007. Adding to the favorable news, the Unemployment Rate improved to 10.0%, when expectations were for it to remain at the 10.2% level.

While the news was good for the economy and helped Stocks improve sharply, it wasn't so favorable for Bonds...and as a result, home loan rates moved slightly higher on the news, continuing their worsening trend for the week overall.

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Chart: 2009 Job Growth/Losses (In Thousands)


In other news, based on early numbers, 195 Million shoppers hit the stores and websites on Black Friday, which was up from last year's 172 Million. Cyber Monday - the online equivalent of Black Friday - also showed an increase in web shoppers, up by 6% from last year. It appears that the shopping traffic was up, but the dollars-per-shopper may be down a bit. This might be indicative of not only consumers being conservative...but also the fact that with all the deep sales taking place to incent buyers, fewer dollars may be spent to get the very same merchandise as a year ago.

SPEAKING OF THE HOLIDAYS...YOU CAN STILL DECORATE FOR THE HOLIDAYS WITHOUT BREAKING THE BANK. TAKE A LOOK AT THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE VIEW ARTICLE BELOW FOR CREATIVE, COST-EFFECTIVE TIPS FOR SPRUCING UP YOUR HOME THIS SEASON.

Forecast for the Week

The week ahead starts out a bit sleepy in terms of economic reports, with no major releases due until Thursday when the Initial Jobless Claims report and the Balance of Trade report will both arrive.

Friday will bring another shot of economic news when the Retail Sales Report - the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns - is released. We'll also get a look at the Consumer Sentiment Index for an updated snapshot of how consumers are feeling about the economy.

In addition to these reports, the markets will be watching the latest round of Treasury auctions. This week's auctions include longer-term maturities such as 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds that compete with Mortgage Backed Securities or Mortgage Bonds. So as we've been seeing of late, the auctions could cause some volatility, depending on how well they are received.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds hit a high for 2009 on November 27th, but traded lower last week due to financial news and a better-than-expected Jobs Report.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 04, 2009)

The Mortgage Market View...

Budget-Friendly Decorating Tips

The holiday season is a costly time of year. There are gifts to buy, parties to prepare for, and any number of other miscellaneous expenses. One expense that can really add up is the money put toward holiday decorations. Here are some budget-friendly decorating tips that go easy on your wallet while also making your home look and feel beautiful.

The Nose Knows

We associate the holidays with certain scents. Pine, cinnamon, and cloves seem to top the list. If your family celebrates Christmas, you've most likely got the pine part covered with your fresh Christmas tree. If you don't celebrate Christmas, or if you're partial to an artificial tree, you can ask your local Christmas tree lot about the branches they've trimmed off of trees and have no use for. Freebees like these can be used to adorn mantles, decorate coffee tables, or may be tastefully strewn across a dining room table. They add a splash of color and a fresh pine scent without the presence of a tree.

Regarding the scent of either cinnamon or cloves, there are several ways to achieve it. Two of the easiest and least expensive methods are the use of potpourri and scented oils. Strategically place two or three such items around the house, and you'll be immediately transported into the holiday mode.

Lighting Is Everything

The good news is that achieving the proper holiday lighting doesn't require you to purchase any expensive fixtures. Instead, start with candles and lots of them. Candlesticks, votives, tea lights, and pillar candles all have the ability to create mood through incandescence. Candlelit dinners seem to look and taste better, and movie watching in a candlelit room adds ambience to the experience.

The bad news about candles is if you shop for them in the wrong place, you can rack up a hefty bill in no time at all. If you're thinking about burning a lot of candles this holiday season, it can easily turn into one of those unnecessary expenses. For an array of inexpensive candles, look no further than your local Ikea store. If that's not a possibility, simply log onto www.ikea.com and browse the nearly 100 different types of candles they have to offer.

Color, Color, Color

The holidays are all about color. If you celebrate Christmas, red, green, and white will serve as your color palate. If Hanukkah is your holiday, it's all about blue, silver, and white. And if Kwanzaa is your celebration, look no further than red, green, and black. If none of these options work for you, there are always fall colors like brown, orange, and yellow.

Whatever your color choice may be, it is important to incorporate it into every room. Tablecloths and cloth napkins can provide the color in your dining room. In terms of the living room, pillows and throw blankets can serve as your holiday color accents. Even holiday gifts awaiting their opening can be wrapped in the appropriate colored paper. In terms of the rest of your home, be creative. Just make sure to utilize the colors that represent whatever holiday you are celebrating.

The Sound of Music

Music is decoration for the ears. Most of us have some sort of holiday-themed music somewhere in our collection. If not, pick up 3 or 4 compilation CDs that illustrate the holiday you are celebrating or look for 24-hour holiday-themed music stations through your cable or satellite service. Play these (on a lower volume) whenever you have a gathering in your home, or simply feel like getting into the spirit of the season.

But don't stop there. Genres like soft jazz or classical music are also great to pipe into your living room during your gatherings. They add a soothing sophistication to any holiday event.

With just a little creativity, your home can look, smell, and sound just like you want it to this holiday season...without breaking the piggybank!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of December 07 - December 11

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