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Barry Brown's Latest Blog:
Larry Ellison's Lanai Plan
(Posted: May 03, 2013)
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 Inside Lending Newsletter excerpt courtesy of Sharon Robinson, Senior Loan Officer, Guild Mortgage >>Market Update QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Optimism is essential to achievement and it is also the foundation of courage and true progress." --Nicholas Murray Butler, American diplomat and educator INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... It definitely takes guts to remain optimistic in the face of some of the housing data coming at us these days. Last week, for example, we were greeted with a 16.5% drop in Housing Starts for April. It helps to dig into these reports. The dip was mostly due to multi-family starts, which are very volatile month to month, and were down 38.9%. Turns out, single-family starts were off just 2.1%. Taking a long-term view helps even more. Starts overall are up 13.1% versus a year ago, with single-family starts up a healthy 20.8%. So there. It didn't take any effort at all to stay optimistic in the face of the April Building Permits report. New building permits rose 14.3% during the month to a 1.02 million annual rate. Permits for single-family homes are now up 27.5% over a year ago, and multi-family permits are up a whopping 50.9%. An analysis of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data revealed that 64% of building permits issued in the first quarter of this year were for single-family homes. And they were at the highest level since Q1 of 2008. BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Use social media to give something back. Shining the light on others doing good in the community attracts attention to yourself in the best way possible. >> Review of Last Week BULL-IEVE IT!... Given the week's mostly disappointing economic data, it was hard to believe the bulls prevailed on Wall Street again, pushing stocks to their fourth weekly gain in a row with the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes setting new records. To be fair, the bulls did have some decent reports on which to base their enthusiasm. April Retail Sales, Building Permits, and Leading Economic Indicators all surprised to the upside. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for May also handily beat estimates. However, a plethora of indicators headed to the downside, starting with weak readings for April Industrial Production and the New York Empire Manufacturing Index for May. The disappointing economic news continued with higher than expected Initial Unemployment Claims, a dip in Housing Starts, and a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing for that region. But the CPI reading for April showed that consumer price inflation is staying well under control. The week ended with the Dow up 1.6%, to 15354; the S&P 500 up 2.1%, to 1667; and the Nasdaq up 1.8%, to 3499. As equity markets hit new all-time highs, bonds came under considerable selling pressure and prices slid. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .14, at $105.04. National average mortgage rates rose again in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, although they remain well below levels of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan demand off for the week but still up 10% from a year ago. DID YOU KNOW?... A bond is a debt instrument issued for a period of more than one year with the purpose of raising capital by borrowing. An investor who buys a bond becomes a creditor of the issuer but does not gain any ownership rights, as in the case of stocks. >> This Week's Forecast HOME SALES GAIN, DURABLE GOODS RECOVER, FED CHITCHAT... Additional data on the housing recovery comes in this week and more progress is expected for April. Existing Home Sales are forecast to inch higher to just below a 5 million unit annual rate. New Home Sales should also continue edging up farther into 400K territory. Wednesday's FOMC Minutes from the Fed's May 1 meeting will spark interest, as we see whether the discussion sheds any more light on the central bank's view of the economy. The week ends with April Durable Goods, predicted to bounce back into positive territory, showing a healthier market for long-term purchases. Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Nothing happened last week to change the prevailing view of economists that the Fed will keep the Funds Rate at exceptionally low levels at least until the last three months of this year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
Barry and Carol Brown, RE/MAX Resort Realty February 2013 UPDATE
January 2013 |
2/28/13 National Association of Realtors Weekly Report Excerpt:
Seller's Market Developing in Much of the U.S.
Daily Real Estate News | Friday, February 22, 2013 Existing-home sales edged up in January, while a seller's market is developing and home prices continue to rise steadily above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales rose in every region but the West, which is the region most constrained by limited inventory. Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.92 million in January from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in December, and are 9.1 percent above the 4.51 million-unit pace in January 2012. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said tight inventory is a major factor in the market. "Buyer traffic is continuing to pick up, while seller traffic is holding steady," he said. "In fact, buyer traffic is 40 percent above a year ago, so there is plenty of demand but insufficient inventory to improve sales more strongly. We've transitioned into a seller's market in much of the country." Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 4.9 percent to 1.74 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.5 months in December, and is the lowest housing supply since April 2005 when it was also 4.2 months. Listed inventory is 25.3 percent below a year ago when there was a 6.2-month supply. Raw unsold inventory is at the lowest level since December 1999 when there were 1.71 million homes on the market. "We expect a seasonal rise of inventory this spring, but it may be insufficient to avoid more frequent incidences of multiple bidding and faster-than-normal price growth," Yun explained. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $173,600 in January, up 12.3 percent from January 2012, which is the 11thconsecutive month of year-over-year price increases; that last occurred from July 2005 to May 2006. The January gain is the strongest since November 2005 when it was 12.9 percent above a year earlier. Distressed homes — foreclosures and short sales — accounted for 23 percent of January sales, down from 24 percent in December and 35 percent in January 2012. Fourteen percent of January sales were foreclosures and 9 percent were short sales. Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 20 percent below market value in January, while short sales were discounted 12 percent. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.41 percent in January from a record low 3.35 percent in December; it was 3.92 percent in January 2012. Sales Trends NAR President Gary Thomas said homes are selling faster. "The typical home is selling nearly four weeks faster than it did a year ago," he said. "In this environment, REALTORS® can help buyers strike a balance between moving quickly and protecting their interests, such as making offers contingent upon a satisfactory home inspection and obtaining a loan; of course, a loan pre-qualification may help too." The median time on market for all homes was 71 days in January, down from 73 days in December and is 28.3 percent below 99 days in January 2012. Short sales were on the market for a median of 94 days, while foreclosures typically sold in 47 days and non-distressed homes took 75 days; 31 percent of all homes sold in January were on the market for less than a month. First-time buyers accounted for 30 percent of purchases in January, unchanged from December; they were 33 percent in January 2012. All-cash sales were at 28 percent of transactions in January, down from 29 percent in December and 31 percent in January 2012. Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 19 percent of homes in January, down from 21 percent in December and 23 percent in January 2012. Single-family home sales increased 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.34 million in January from 4.33 million in December, and are 8.5 percent above the 4.00 million-unit level in January 2012. The median existing single-family home price was $174,100 in January, up 12.6 percent from a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 1.8 percent to an annualized pace of 580,000 in January from 570,000 in December, and are 13.7 percent higher than the 510,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $169,600 inJanuary, up 9.4 percent from January 2012. Performance by Region Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 650,000 in January and are 12.1 percent above January 2012. The median price in the Northeast was $230,500, up 2.4 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent in January to a pace of 1.16 million and are 17.2 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $131,800, which is 8.6 percent above January 2012. In the South, existing-home sales increased 1.0 percent to an annual level of 1.96 million in January and are 14.0 percent above January 2012. The median price in the South was $152,100, up 13.4 percent from a year ago. Existing-home sales in the West fell 5.7 percent to a pace of 1.15 million in January and are 5.7 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $239,800, which is 26.6 percent above January 2012. Source: NAR |
Inside Lending newsletter excerpt courtesy of Sharon Robinson, Senior Loan Officer, Guild Mortgage For the week of April 22, 2013 – Vol. 11, Issue 16 QUOTE OF THE WEEK..."We do not have to become heroes overnight. Just a step at a time, meeting each thing that comes up,...discovering we have the strength to stare it down." --Eleanor Roosevelt Our hearts go out to the Boston bombing victims and their families. Our pride goes out to the heroes who responded with sacrifice and courage. God Bless America. >>Market Update INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE...Last week Housing Starts were reported UP 7.0% for March to a 1.036 million unit annual rate, 46.7% higher than a year ago and the highest they've been since 2008. But wait. The boost was all due to multi-family units, up 31.1% for the month. Single-family starts were down 4.8%, although they actually are UP a very healthy 28.7% from a year ago. Analysts tell us the multi-family sector is super volatile from month to month, but they expect large gains for home building overall for at least two years. Building Permits in March were down a bit, to a 902,000 annual rate, but almost all the drop was due to multi-families. Single-family permits slipped just 0.5% for the month and are now UP 27.7% versus a year ago. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confidence index went to 42 from 44 in March. But get this. The NAHB index for future single-family sales rose from 50 to 53, a very positive sign. Economists say it's OK in a recovery to see up and down indicators along the way, as long as the underlying trend is upward, which it is now in housing. BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK...Focus. Set goals, make decisions, get organized. Don't just watch life happen; take control of your destiny. As Yogi Berra said: "If you don't know where you are going, you'll wind up somewhere else." >>Review of Last Week DOWN...It was a volatile week on Wall Street, with corporate earnings , economic data, commodities, and global growth worries keeping investors on edge. When all was said and done, it was no surprise that the three major stock indexes closed markedly down for the week. Q1 corporate earnings were a mixed bag, with IBM missing forecasts and Microsoft beating them. General Electric's profits were in line with projections, but McDonald's missed. Google happily reported a double-digit increase in net revenue from its core Internet business. Economic data was also mixed. The New York Empire and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indexes both missed estimates, indicating slowing activity in those regions. The NAHB Housing Market index and March Building Permits also came in lower than expected. But Industrial Production and Housing Starts both pushed past forecasts, clearly positive signs for factories and home builders. Yet crude oil and gold futures were hammered and global growth concerns returned, as China's Q1 GDP rose at a 7.7% annual rate when 8.0% was expected. The week ended with the Dow down 2.1%, to 14548; the S&P 500 also down 2.1%, to 1555; and the Nasdaq down 2.7%, to 3206. Atypically, the heavy selling in stocks did not spur a flight to safety to bonds, which ended the week little changed. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week up .01, at $106.09. After the prior week's soft retail and consumer sentiment numbers, national average mortgage rates edged lower for the third week in a row. The Mortgage Bankers Association put purchase loan applications at their highest level since May 2010, up 4% for the week and up 20% versus a year ago. DID YOU KNOW?...GDP, Gross Domestic Product, is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a year. It equals total consumer, investment, and government spending, plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports. >>This Week's Forecast HOME SALES SOLID, DURABLE GOODS SINK, GDP SOARS...The week should begin with solid home sales numbers for March, the annual rate of Existing Home Sales surpassing the 5M threshold and New Home Sales moving ahead nicely. But as usual, any excitement will be tempered. In this case, Durable Goods Orders for March are expected to slide 3.1%. In spite of this, the first Advanced Q1 GDP reading is forecast to show economic growth proceeding at an encouraging 2.8% annual rate. This is good news following the negative to anemic GDP growth numbers we saw for Q4. >>Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Last Thursday Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota said financial market conditions requiring the Fed to keep rates super low may persist for 5 to 10 years. More cause for economists to expect no change in the Funds Rate. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
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| Honolua Bay Sept. '12, courtesy Dooma | Bay water photo courtesy Patrick Devault |
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Barry Lee Brown (R)
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